Drastic policy change and investment will also be needed if the notion of Africa “leapfrogging to renewables” is plausible, according to the authors of a new study by the University of Oxford, published in the academic journal Nature Energy.
The study predicts that total electricity generation across the African continent will double by 2030, and fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energy mix. Renewable energy is expected to account for less than 10% of Africa’s electricity generation by 2030 whilst hydro energy will constitute 18% of Africa’s energy capacity. The study used a machine-learning technique to analyze the pipeline of more than 2,500 planned power plants and their chances of being commissioned.
Policy change and investment impact on African renewables
For Africa to realise its energy targets, it would require massive investments and policy changes to unlock the continent’s wind and solar power potential, researchers said on Monday.
“Africa’s electricity demand is set to increase significantly as the continent strives to industrialize and improve the well-being of its people, which offers an opportunity to power this economic development through renewables’ says Galina Alova, study lead author and researcher at the Oxford Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment.
“There is a prominent narrative in the energy planning community that the continent will be able to take advantage of its vast renewable energy resources and rapidly decreasing clean technology prices to leapfrog to renewables by 2030 – but our analysis shows that overall it is not currently positioned to do so,” added Alova.
The study predicts that in 2030, fossil fuels will account for two-thirds of all generated electricity across Africa. While an additional 18% of generation is set to come from hydro-energy projects. These have their own challenges, such as being vulnerable to an increasing number of droughts caused by climate change.
South Africa to account for 40% of Africa’s solar energy capacity
The research also highlights regional differences in the pace of the transition to renewables, with southern Africa leading the way. South Africa alone is forecast to add almost 40% of Africa’s total predicted new solar capacity by 2030.
‘Namibia is committed to generate 70% of its electricity needs from renewable sources, including all the major alternative sources such as hydropower, wind and solar generation, by 2030, as specified in the National Energy Policy and in Intended Nationally Determined Contributions under Paris Climate Change Accord,’ says Calle Schlettwein, Namibia Minister of Water (former Minister of Finance and Minister of Industrialisation). ‘We welcome this study and believe that it will support the refinement of strategies for increasing generation capacity from renewable sources in Africa and facilitate both successful and more effective public and private sector investments in the renewable energy sector.’
Minister Schlettwein adds: ‘The more data-driven and advanced analytics-based research is available for understanding the risks associated with power generation projects, the better. Some of the risks that could be useful to explore in the future are the uncertainties in hydrological conditions and wind regimes linked to climate change, and economic downturns such as that caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.’
What can Africa do?
The study further suggests that a decisive move towards renewable energy in Africa would require a significant shock to the current system. This includes large-scale cancellation of fossil fuel plants currently being planned. In addition, the study identifies ways in which planned renewable energy projects can be designed to improve their success chances – for example, smaller size, fitting ownership structure, and availability of development finance.
‘The development community and African decision makers need to act quickly if the continent wants to avoid being locked into a carbon-intense energy future’ says Philipp Trotter, study author and researcher at the Smith School. ‘Immediate re-directions of development finance from fossil fuels to renewables are an important lever to increase experience with solar and wind energy projects across the continent in the short term, creating critical learning curve effects.’
