Market Intelligence released by the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) in its Global Wind Report 2022 forecasts that South Africa is set to deploy around 5.4 GW of wind energy generation capacity by 2026, retaining the title of largest wind market in Sub-Saharan Africa in terms of installed capacity.
The country’s energy roadmap, the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP2019) which guides the technologies for the country’s electricity generation mix, sets out a trajectory for rapid deployment of wind, solar and storage by 2030. GWEC emphasised that timely implementation will be necessary to decarbonise the power system in South Africa.
South Africa currently has an installed wind energy generation capacity of around 3,024 MW connected to its grid, providing up to 2.5% of electricity generation in the country.
Under the IRP2019, renewables are expected to constitute between 35 – 40% of the country’s electricity generation mix by 2030. This would require deployment of about 20.4 GW of additional renewable energy capacity in this decade. Deployment of new wind capacity according to GWEC will be necessary to address some of the financial and operational challenges faced by the state-owned utility, Eskom.
Regular procurement key to market growth
“Stable pipelines of wind projects can be created through continuous and regular capacity procurement, including a long term and on-time auction schedule, as well as a more robust REI4P process which can minimise delays for selection and contract completion,” GWEC recommends.
GWEC in its Global Wind Report 2022 also noted that the South African energy market still has key challenges to overcome as the historical regulation has favoured legacy systems based on fossil fuels. GWEC says regulatory changes will be necessary to support the transition to cleaner sources.
“Investors and financiers require as much policy certainty as possible, with supportive frameworks which allow for wheeling and the signing of direct PPAs with IPPs without ministerial approval,” the report reads.
The global wind industry representative body says grid constraints in three provinces in South Africa including the Northern Cape have strongly curtailed the rollout of shovel ready projects. This has affected investment certainty in new renewable projects in the country.
In spite of the slow downs in procurement in South Africa, GWEC maintains that South Africa’s leadership position in wind energy on the African continent is set to continue for years to come.
“With strong local demand, shifting priorities to sustainable energy and promising policy signals, wind power is set to drive the phasing out of coal in South Africa and contribute to the creation of a low-carbon economy,” GWEC concluded.
